A West Asia under Donald Trump : Valley Vision

Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s meet with U.S. President Donald Trump prior to the signing the Abraham Accords, at the White House in 2020. File
| Photo Credit: Reuters

One of the key foreign policy issues to have plagued Joe Biden’s single-term presidency was Israel’s war on the Palestinians in Gaza. Before the October 7, 2023 attack by Hamas in Israel, his administration seemed confident about its West Asia policy. Mr. Biden wanted to expand the Arab-Israel normalisation process, which was initiated by his predecessor, Donald Trump, through the 2020 Abraham Accords. Saudi Arabia and Israel were in an advanced stage of normalising ties. The Palestine question had been pushed to the margins of regional politics. But October 7 overhauled the status quo.

Mr. Biden immediately offered his full support for Israel, which launched a retaliatory war in Gaza. The Biden administration’s approach was largely two-pronged: support Israel’s war in Gaza, while beginning diplomatic measures to prevent the conflict from escalating into an all-out regional war. But what Mr. Biden got after a year was a disastrous, unending war in Gaza, sullying America’s reputation, and a widening conflict in West Asia, dragging the United States deeper into it. Over the past year, more than 43,000 Palestinians have been killed in Gaza. The war also expanded to Lebanon when, on October 1, Israel launched its fourth invasion of the neighbouring country. The conflict has also triggered a shooting match between Israel and Iran. Mr. Biden was accused of being complicit in “Israel’s genocide” against the Palestinians, and his diplomatic efforts to prevent the conflict from widening in West Asia proved ineffectual. This means Donald Trump, the next President of the U.S., is going to inherit a West Asia, traditionally a backyard of American influence, on fire.

Trump’s record

Make no mistake. Mr. Trump is not an Israel-sceptic. Pro-Israel policies defined his West Asia policy during his first term in office. It was Mr. Trump who moved America’s embassy to Jerusalem. It was Mr. Trump’s administration that recognised Israel’s illegal annexation of Syria’s Golan Heights. And it was Mr. Trump who withdrew the U.S. unilaterally from the Iran nuclear deal, despite United Nations certification that Iran was fully compliant with the terms of the 2015 agreement. And even the Abraham Accords, which brought Israel and Arab nations, the two pillars of America’s West Asia policy together, were aimed at building a combined stronger alliance against Iran, the common foe of the U.S. and Israel. Mr. Trump had unveiled a ‘peace plan’ for Israel-Palestine in 2020, but it had been rejected outright by the Palestinian leadership, saying it was heavily in favour of Israel.

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So, Mr. Trump is unlikely to take a strong moral position against Israel’s war in Gaza. During the campaign, he had also made it clear that he strongly stood for Israel’s victory in the ongoing wars in West Asia. Yet, Israel’s disastrous multi-front wars would pose critical foreign policy challenges to Mr. Trump.

Threads to the issues

The first problem he would face is what Mr. Biden faced in October 2023. Mr. Biden was ready to overlook criticisms of genocide against Israel, but he did not want an all-out war in West Asia, which the Americans believe are not in their interests. He called for a ceasefire in Gaza but refused to exert any meaningful pressure on the Benjamin Netanyahu government. According to an analysis by Brown University, the Biden administration spent $17.9 billion on military assistance to Israel in a year from October 2023. Mr. Biden wanted to insulate the war in Gaza from the larger conflict in West Asia, but he failed to do so. Mr. Trump, likewise, might support Israel in the war on Gaza or against Hezbollah, but he would not like the U.S. being drawn into a regional war, mainly for two reasons.

First, Mr. Trump’s base is against the U.S. getting stuck in West Asia’s forever wars. His Vice-President-elect J.D. Vance has repeatedly slammed America’s wars in the region, particularly the 2003 Iraq invasion. Mr. Trump would like to focus on further strengthening America’s conventional capabilities and bring China, its most powerful conventional rival, into the pulpit of his foreign policy. A war with Iran would not serve this purpose.

Second, one of Mr. Trump’s key campaign promises was to fix the cost of living crisis. If there is a larger war with Iran, which could affect energy supplies through the Strait of Hormuz that connects the Persian Gulf to the Arabian Sea, the inflationary pressure will only get enhanced. For political, economic and strategic reasons, a wider war in West Asia would not be in the interest of a Trump administration either.

Looking ahead

But what is to be seen is whether Mr. Trump can look at the larger strategic picture and take corrective measures to restore America’s position in West Asia. Mr. Biden is leaving behind a broken region where Israel is going rogue with American support. Granted, America still remains the most powerful country in the region and its Arab allies are still sticking to America’s leadership, despite many grievances. But Israel’s unending, disproportionate wars have damaged America’s reputation. Worse, it has brought the region to the brink of an all-out war. Mr. Trump has to be more assertive in bringing the wars in Gaza and Lebanon to an end at the earliest if he wants to restore stability in the region. If he continues the Biden policies, topped up by his own pro-Israeli impulses which were on display during his first presidency, West Asia will fall further into chaos.

stanly.johny@thehindu.co.in