Forecasting better in India, come rain or shine : Valley Vision

‘Open access to weather data helps in the analysis of trends and in understanding the causes behind extreme weather events better’
| Photo Credit: Getty Images/iStockphoto

The monsoon season this year in India has been one of the worst in recent times, with recurrent flooding impacting most States. According to a 2021 study by the Council on Energy, Environment and Water (CEEW), approximately 40% of districts in India experience alternating climatic hazards, which means that flood-prone regions are also facing droughts during the dry season and vice-versa. Separately, an analysis of 40 years of rainfall data by CEEW shows that there has been an increase of up to 64% in heavy rainfall days during the monsoons over the last decade.

Extreme weather needs better forecasting

In this increasingly complex scenario, while nearly two-thirds of India’s population are exposed to flood risks, only a third of the flood-prone population is covered by early warning systems. This is in stark contrast to cyclone early warning systems which cover all cyclone-prone areas in the country. It is evident that India must invest in enhancing weather forecasting and bringing technological innovation to the forefront, as a safety net, to address the growing extreme weather risks.

Editorial | Weather gods: On ‘Mission Mausam’

The ‘Mission Mausam’, that was approved in September 2024, broadly focuses on increasing India’s weather observation network, improving weather forecasting models and investigating weather modification techniques. The mission will be implemented primarily by three institutes under the Ministry of Earth Sciences, namely the India Meteorological Department (IMD), the National Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (NCMRWF) and the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology (IITM). The ₹2,000 crore initiative aims to augment the weather observation network using a variety of instruments while also improving forecasting models through an improved understanding of the physics of the atmosphere and the integration of machine-learning approaches.

To harness its potential, India must expand its forecasting capabilities in areas that face a high climate risk and make data widely available for developing use cases across sectors such as energy, agriculture and water. These are the key pathways ‘Mission Mausam’ should focus on.

Gaps in radar coverage, limited data access

First, prioritise installing weather observation platforms on India’s western coast and in large urban centres facing high climate risks. India has 39 Doppler Weather Radars (DWRs) to monitor rainfall, with many covering a radius of 250 kilometres. These provide short-term forecasts, ranging from minutes to a few hours, of extreme rainfall events. Nine of these radars are located in the Himalayan States, eight along the eastern coast, and 17 located in various Indian cities. The remaining five are on the west coast. Recent studies indicate that cyclones are becoming more frequent and intense in the Arabian Sea. But, as said, only five radars monitor the entire west coast. Even key cities such as Ahmedabad (Gujarat), Bengaluru (Karnataka), and Jodhpur (Rajasthan), which have faced repeated flooding recently, do not have radars as yet. Therefore, ‘Mission Mausam’ should prioritise the installation of weather radars and other observational platforms in areas that have not been covered as yet and which face growing climate risks.

Second, make weather data openly available for researchers and entrepreneurs to develop use cases. Open access to weather data helps in the analysis of trends and in understanding the causes behind extreme weather events better. It also helps in the creation of localised early warning tools. For instance, the United States has made the data from its 160 DWRs openly available which has resulted in the creation of several analytical tools to support local governments. Similarly, the United Kingdom, France, and the European Union have made their weather forecasting data available on cloud for anyone to access. While the IMD shares data through its data supply portal, restrictions remain on the volume of data provided.

Moreover, the data on the portal is not freely available to researchers from academic institutions and think tanks. Therefore, ‘Mission Mausam’ should establish infrastructure to distribute data generated by the new instruments, such as weather radars, wind profilers and radiometers, in the public domain. Moreover, the data from the weather forecasting models developed as part of the mission should also be placed in the public domain for researchers to validate and provide suggestions for improvement. This will foster innovation and localised decision-making.

Reaching out to users

Third, improve communication tools for weather warnings and enhance user capacity. The IMD disseminates weather information through multiple channels, which include web and mobile applications. Over the years, the web application has been significantly strengthened to the extent that it now provides district-wise weather warnings that range from an hour to the next four days of forecast. However, the user experience could be improved further. While the tool offers helpful warnings, providing users with guidance on how to interpret these warnings would enhance their experience. ‘Mission Mausam’ must focus on enhancing users’ capacity to understand and act on warnings through informative videos, media, and guides.

Editorial | Gearing up for change: On IMD and weather analyses having contemporary relevance

‘Mission Mausam’ is a timely move by the Union government to make the country weather ready and climate smart through an expanded observational network and improved weather forecasting. With improvements, the mission can transform how weather information is shared and understood in India. This is critical at a time when extreme weather events are taking a heavy toll on lives and livelihoods.

Mohammad Rafiuddin is a Programme Associate at the Council on Energy, Environment and Water (CEEW). Vishwas Chitale is a Senior Programme Lead at the Council on Energy, Environment and Water (CEEW). They tweet at @mrafiuddin50 and @vishchi. The views expressed are personal