Putin opens door to Donald Trump’s peace deal but Ukraine must make huge concessions; will Zelenskyy accept the plan?

Russian President Vladimir Putin is open to discussing a ceasefire deal in Ukraine with US President-elect Donald Trump but remains firm on key demands, including Ukraine abandoning its NATO aspirations and accepting limited territorial concessions, Reuters reported citing five sources familiar with Kremlin thinking.

President-elect Trump has vowed to swiftly end the war, claiming he is uniquely positioned to negotiate peace.

The sources, comprising current and former Russian officials, revealed that the Kremlin may agree to freeze the conflict along existing front lines, the news report said. While there is room for negotiation over specific boundaries in the contested eastern regions of Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson, Moscow is unwilling to cede its claim over these territories, which it considers part of Russia under its nuclear protection, the report added.

Putin’s position on security and neutrality

Putin emphasized the importance of Ukraine’s neutrality during the Valdai Discussion Club on November 7, saying, “If there is no neutrality, it is difficult to imagine the existence of any good-neighbourly relations between Russia and Ukraine.” He argued that NATO’s presence in Ukraine would undermine regional stability and Russia’s security interests.

Complications from recent developments

Outgoing US President Joe Biden’s decision to provide Ukraine with ATACMS missiles, used recently to strike Russian territory, has complicated potential negotiations.

“If no ceasefire is agreed, then Russia will fight on,” one source said, the report stated. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov echoed this stance, calling the missile authorization a “dangerous escalation,” it said.

Territorial overview and prospects for peace

Russia currently controls about 18% of Ukrainian territory, including Crimea and significant portions of the Donbas region, as well as 70-80% of Zaporizhzhia and Kherson. While minor withdrawals in Kharkiv and Mykolaiv may be possible, the Kremlin sees retaining most of its occupied territory as a domestic and strategic victory.

Potential framework for a ceasefire

A draft agreement from April 2022, nearly finalized during Istanbul talks, may serve as a basis for renewed negotiations. Under this framework, Ukraine would commit to neutrality in exchange for international security guarantees from UN Security Council permanent members, including Russia.

However, achieving a broader and lasting peace remains unlikely given the vast differences between Ukrainian and Russian demands. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has repeatedly asserted that Ukraine will not rest until all its territories, including Crimea, are restored.